Saturday, July 31, 2010

The Move the Warriors Could, Should and Will Make

Vocal new owner Joe Lacob has made it clear that the Warriors roster will follow the “Big Three” model, a blueprint for NBA success pioneered by the San Antonio Spurs and replicated by numerous successful teams. 

The concept behind the “Big Three” is to stockpile a roster with assets, such as young talent and expiring contracts, and use them to acquire 3 superstars. Once the “Big Three” is established, the team does not commit big money to the remainder of the roster, instead employing bargain veterans and cheap youth.


This model has worked to perfection in San Antonio, where the team has won three NBA titles over the past decade. Superstars Tim Duncan, Manu Ginobli and Tony Parker have played star roles in each of the three championship runs, yet the supporting cast has been different every year. The first benefited from aging players David Robinson, Avery Johnson and Sean Elliot, the second featured young players Stephen Jackson, Bruce Bowen and Speedy Claxton, and the third rode vets Nick Van Exel, Michael Finley and Robert Horry.


Over the past few years numerous teams have attempted to replicate San Antonio's success. The Portland Trail Blazers continue to build around Brandon Roy, Lamarcus Aldridge and Greg Oden, and the Oklahoma Thunder are banking on a trio of Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook and Jeff Green. 

The model has now become mainstream after it was glorified by the Boston Celtics. GM Danny Ainge took a beating from fans as the team lost “oodles” of games and he stockpiled tradeable assets. His patience paid off however when the opportunity became available to not  only aquire Kevin Garnet , but Ray Allen as well. These two, along with incumbent star Paul Pierce, went on to win one NBA Finals, appear in another and accomplish three 60 win seasons. 

So it is no surprise that Joe Lacob, having witnessed the turnaround in Boston first hand as a minority owner, envisions the same for Golden State.

What is exciting to Warriors fans is that Lacob feels that the Warriors already have a “Big Two” in young Stephen Curry and newly acquired forward David Lee. He believes the team is one star away from forming their own “Big Three” in Golden State.

And this appears to be an accurate assessment.

Curry, currently holding one of the fifteen rosters spots on USA’s national basketball team, has shown the potential to be a star point guard in the mold of Steve Nash. He is a very efficient shooter, has one of the wettest J’s in the NBA, and his basketball IQ is something the Warriors haven’t seen, well, ever. Additionally, and his Davidson career proved that he has a competitive fire and late game charisma.

Lee, also a USA basketball invitee before fracturing his shooting finger, is one of the games top rebounders and pick and roll artists. He excels at finishing around the hoop, hitting out to 18 feet and controlling the defensive boards. Add to that a reputation as one of the hardest workers and classiest players in the NBA and you might be reconsidering your position on his 10 million a year contract.

So if Curry and Lee are two thirds of the equation, than who can the Warriors bring in to be the third star?

Whoever that may be, he must complement Lee and Curry on both the offensive and defensive end. as both players have holes in their games. For all of their talents, neither is a great one-on-one defender and both excel in an up-tempo style of offense. 


The third star must have the ability to guard the opponents star every night and excel at handling the ball and scoring in the open court. 

Offensively, the bread and butter will be the screen and roll. Ideally the third star would complement this with elite swing-man skills, attacking defenses from the weak side after ball reversals and hitting three balls when Curry drives and kicks. 

So who could the Warriors target to be the final piece to the Warriors three star puzzle?

I cant think of a better fit than Andre Igoudala.

He would be a perfect complement to Curry and Lee. He has earned a reputation as a lock down defender who can guard multiple positions, he excels in the open court, he is an aggressive slasher to the hoop and he is also an accomplished assist man, posting 5.8 per game for his career.

So the question is, do the Warriors have what it takes to get him?

I believe they do. GM Larry Riley has been quietly stockpiling expiring contracts, aiming to make a move at this year’s trade deadline. He can currently offer a team 17 million dollars in salary cap relief with the expiring contracts of Dan Gadzuric, Vladamir Radmonovic and Brandon Wright. These contracts, paired with either Monta Ellis or Andris Biedriens can provide a team with cap relief and NBA starting level talent.

I do not know if the 76ers are interested in either Ellis or Biedriens, but I do know they are determined to build around a developing young core of Evan Turner, Jrue Holliday and Thadeaus Young. What is holding them back from committing to the youth movement is Elton Brands toxic 15 million dollar contract. The only way out of that four year mistake appears to be packaging him with Igoudala, which is what they almost did at last years deadline, nearly sending the duo to the Houston Rockets.

The Warriors are in an enviable position in that they have the assets to facilitate such a trade. Depending on which 10 million dollar talent the 76ers would be interested in, Ellis or Biedriens, the Warriors could offer a package based around one of the two, plus 17 million dollars in salary cap relief. This would erase the Elton Brand mistake from Philly’s payroll and allow them to build around their young core in 2011, while still acquiring at least one NBA level starter in Ellis or Biedriens and a young piece in Brandon Wright.

If the Warriors could pull this off, they would be committed to Lee, Brand, Igoudala and Ellis/Biedrins, for 50 million over the next 4 years. If they can than dump the remainder of Ellis/Biedrins contract for an expiring they would be in an ideal position.

They would than have seven players under contract after this season for a total of 50million. Their big three would cost 27 million with Lee, (12mill), Igoudala, (12mill) and Curry, (3mill.) Their frontline would cost 18 million, Brand (15mill) and Udoh (3mill.) And they would have some nice role players on the cheap, Dorrell Wright (3mill) and Reggie Williams (500K.)

The team would than have 16 million to work with in the 2011 offseason to extend Curry’s contract, beef up the front-line and fill out the roster with veteran role players.

A big three with Curry, Lee and Igoudala?

Do "We Believe?"

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