Wednesday, September 8, 2010

How to beat the Golden State Warriors: 2010 Scouting Report

Ohhh!!! You Want me to play Defense Too?
Below is my scouting Report of the 2010 Golden State Warriors.

This report lists the teams offensive and defensive strengths and weaknesses, how to exploit them and analysis.


 






Three Offensive Strengths:

1- Transition Jump Shooting
- Love to find open shooters on the primary break
- Over 1.0 PPP, 54% aFG
2- Offensive Rebounding
- Crash the boards to promote their up-tempo pace
- 5% of teams offense comes off put backs, primarily Lee & Biedrins
- Ellis/Curry/ D Wright are all above average rebounders for their positions
3- Pick & Roll Offense- Roll Man
- Next to spot up shooting, roll man scoring is their most efficient shot
- Lee and Biedrins score 1.3 and 0.9 PPP respectively on screen and rolls

Three Offensive Weaknesses:

1-Off ball screens/cuts toward basket
- Are not comfortable scoring from off ball screens and cuts towards the basket
- Accounts for only 8.8% of offense
2-Post Up Game
- Post players are not comfortable on the low block. Prefer to operate out of the pick and roll
- Allow David Lee to shoot from the high post, where he will look for the jumper 40% of the time, and only converts 33%
- Do not allow him to pull up for a jumper of the dribble, where his aFG% improves to 53%
3- Mid-Range Game
- From 17-22 feet the team shoots a decent percentage, but they rely to heavily on them, shooting 43% of their field goals from that distance.
- Additionally, they only draw fouls on 0.5% of these possessions

Three Most Efficient Shots:

1- Stephen Curry Spot Up Jumpers
- 1.39 Points Per Possession
2- David Lee Pick and Roll
- 1.30 Points Per Possession
3- Monta Ellis- Left Wing Isolation- Middle Drives to the Basket
- 1.09 Points Per Possession

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What i found Interesting: Relative to traditional NBA teams, the Warriors hardly score off of free throws, screens and cuts towards the basket. Since they prefer to rely on isolation's, spot up shooters and pick and rolls, they are not getting easy baskets and thus, increasing their offensive degree of difficulty each night.

How to exploit them: Force the Warriors out of their primary and secondary breaks. This means locating shooters in transition, especially when Stephen Curry is playing the off guard, denying passing lanes on drive and kicks and forcing the team into their offensive sets. The Warriors like to run a high screen/roll in the their secondary break, and it may be advisable to trap the ballhandler with an agile big man, as the guards are turnover prone. Once their offense is set up, their shooting becomes less efficient and they will settle for mid range jumpers and one-on-one play.
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Two Defensive Strengths:


1- Defending Pick and Roll Ball Handlers

- Excellent at defending the ball handlers on the pick and roll
- Force turnovers 19.9% of the time
- Top P&R defenders are Ellis and Curry
2- Forcing Turnovers
- The Warriors force turnovers on 14.9% of their opponents possessions
- The primary thief’s are Ellis, Curry and David Lee

Four Defensive Weaknesses:

1- Defending Cuts and Open Shooters

- Opponents score their highest percentage off these categories
- 63% off cuts and 52% off spot up jumpers
2- Defending Isolation's
- Warriors have poor one on one defenders
- Opponents score 14% of their possessions off isolation's
- 0.89 PPP and 46aFG%
- Their weakest one on one defenders are Monta Ellis and David Lee
- Their strongest are Stephen Curry, Dorrell Wright & Reggie Williams
3- Offensive Rebounding
- The Warriors are poor defensive rebounders
- They allow opponents to score 7% of their points off of put backs
4- Defending the screen on pick and rolls
- Scoring through the Roll man may be the most efficient shot against the Warriors
- They currently allow 56% shooting, 1.07 PPP and foul 8% of the time

Three most effective shots against:

1- Pick and Roll

- @ David Lee. Preferably not @ Ellis or Curry
2- Isolations- Low Post
- @ David Lee. @ Andris Biedrins. @ Radmonovic
3- Isolations- Wing
- @ Monta Ellis

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What I found Interesting: It is amazing how terrible the Warriors are defensively. They ranked poorly in nearly every defensive category last year, and this is before David Lee replaced three of the teams top defenders.

Opposing teams shoot an alarming aFG% off spot up jumpers. Additionally, opponents score a large percentage of their points on put backs and cuts toward the basket.

This explains why disciplined teams, such as the Spurs and Lakers have given the Warriors headaches over the years. A patient offense, which forces defensive rotation, will find a bounty of open cutters and uncontested jumpers.

How to Exploit: The way to exploit the Warriors defense is to run off ball action. This will take advantage of the teams poor defensive rotations as it will create space and leave defenders out of position. An ideal offensive set would would either isolate a post player on the low block, or create space for a screen/roll.

Patience and proper execution is essential, otherwise the Warriors will bait teams into an up tempo pace. Guards Stephen Curry and Monta Ellis excel at playing passing lanes and picking ball handlers, but will wear down against a methodical offensive approach.

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