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| Straight Cash Homie! |
In my young sports gambling career I have had a myriad of success and failures. College football and NFL games have proven most likely to bring joyous paydays while NBA and College Basketball have provided about the same chance of making money as winning American Idol.
So luckily for my bank account the football season is about to begin. Its time to dust off the scouting reports, track down the bookies and prepare for 17 weeks of high roller action. (i.e 10$ bets, and 20$ when I am feeling saucy)
But before we get into that, let me bring you up to speed with the rest of the gambling world and provide you, free of charge, the number one secret of sports gambling.
Once you learn this simple tip, and combine it with your sports knowledge, you will have a fighters chance of winning some money this upcoming season. The tip has to do with how spreads are formed and how you can take advantage of them.
It is generally assumed that a point spread is decided by a bookies estimation of the final score.
This is not true.
The purpose of a point spread is to draw 50% of the action towards one team and 50% towards the other.
For example, when Vegas set last years initial Super Bowl point spread at 7 points, they did not actually think the Colts would beat the Saints by exactly one touchdown. Rather, they felt that a seven point spread would draw half the bets towards the Colts and half towards the Saints.
What often happens in Sports Gambling, as it did with the Super Bowl, is that a large majority of the public will place its bets in favor of one team. This is when the point spreads begin to change. In the case of last years Super Bowl, the majority of the public placed their money on the Saints, forcing the bookies to lower the spread to 3 and continue to draw even interest for both teams.
So in essence, you, as a gambler, are not placing your money up against a probable outcome of the game. You are placing your money up against the general opinion of the public.
And this is where you can make a lot of money.
Effective gamblers are able to distinguish the true value of a point spread and determine when the general public is off the mark.
For example, the New York Jets are generally considered a Super Bowl contender by the national media. Everybody has fallen in love with Rex Ryan and his teams staring role on HBO's Hard Knocks. The teams current odds of reaching the Super Bowl, as determined by Vegas, have gradually lowered to where it currently stands, at 7-1. A smart gambler knows that A, the Jets weren't very good last year until the final few games and playoffs, B, the passing game in New York is still unproven, with over-hyped players Braylon Edwards and Mark Sanchez and C, the team will be starting Shonne Green at running back, a player that has never carried the rushing load full time.
Public opinion has over inflated the value of the New York Jets.
Thus, the smart gambler will place his money against the Jets this season, selecting their opponents to cover the spread and taking advantage of their inflated value.
This is similar to last year when two over-hyped teams, the Patriots and Giants did not match their lofty preseason expectations. The teams combined to win 10 games against the spread and loose 22. Meanwhile, under-rated teams such as the Browns and Bengals won a combined 18 games against the spread and lost 14.
Which means, If you had placed $100 in favor of Pats and Giants opponents throughout the season you would have netted yourself $1,120. Additionally, if you had placed a $100 bet in favor of the Browns and Bengals in addition to your bets against the Giants and Pats, you would have had a net of $1,520.
Make Sense?
Now that your'e up to speed with the gambling world, let me throw a theory at you; one that I plan to employ this year in my weekly picks. (Yes, there will be a weekly picks contest on this site, NFL and SEC.)
While sports gambling may seem easy, it's not, and this is because it can be difficult to sort through the useless information and mindless opinions provided by the national media. A good sports gambler is able to determine, for himself, the true value of an NFL team.
So what is the best way to do that? What separates the good NFL teams from the bad?
Well, if you asked me, i would say the answer can be found along the offensive and defensive lines.
Which is where my theory comes into play. Throughout this season, i plan on placing my money on the team with superior play along the offensive and defensive front seven. I will ignore quarterbacks and skill players and instead focus on the players in the trenches when i predict who can cover or uphold a spread.
I mean, let's think about it. How many conversations have you had with football fans that go something like this one?
You: "Who do you think will win this weekend?"
Fan: "Well i think Team A can win because they have Quarterback X, Receiver Y and standout Defensive guys X,Y and Z."
You nod your head and agree, "Sure, those are all valid points."
But how many times do you have a conversation where you discuss the most influential players on the field? The 11 to 12 players that make up the offensive line and the defensive front seven.
I'm guessing almost never. And thats because this is the fantasy football generation. Very few of us discuss the battles in the trenches. Our attention is focused on the players who score on our fantasy teams and show up in the highlight reels on Sports Center.
And that's fine, i admit i do the the same thing. But remember the tip i gave you early in this article; your not betting against a team, your betting against public opinion. So why not take advantage?
I mean lets look at one of the biggest upsets in recent NFL history, Giants over Pats. At the time, it was widely assumed that the undefeated Pats would crush the upstart Giants. Both Tom Brady and Randy Moss were having career years, and the Patriots offense had set numerous NFL records. But did anybody take a look at the Giants defensive front seven? Led by Michael Strahan, Justin Tuck and Osi Umenuryia, it was the best in the league that year. Did anyone consider the Giants offensive line, finally healthy after an injury plagued regular season? Of course not! But if you had, you would have been sitting on a pile of money.
And this is why I am declaring 2010 the year of the lineman. It is time to take advantage of fantasy junkies and modern sports fans and take note of what is happening at the line of scrimmage. Especially if your money is depending on it.
So without further ado, and for your betting pleasure....
The Rankings: Best Combination of Lineman and Linebackers
(Note, i am in large part basing these rankings off of Jason Cole's analysis at Yahoo sports. His data was mined from footballoutsiders.com. Also of note, i have transcribed his specifically OL and DL rankings, along with my own opinions, in the Daily Quick Rant section. Definetly make sure to check it out, as you will be shocked at the corelation between the rankings and the the teams regularly drafting at the top of the lottery)
1- Dallas Cowboys: O-line Rank: 10 D-Line Rank: 5 Linebacker Rank: 2
Actually its not even close. The Cowboys defensive line features two great pass rushers in Marcus Spears (LSU!) and Igor Oslhansk, plus All-Pro nose tackle Jay Ratliff, widely considered the best in the sport. Behind them is a linebacking core headlined by All-Pro Demarcus Ware and up and comer Anthony Spencer. On the other side of the ball Dallas playmakers are safe operating behind massive Leonard Davis strong supporting cast of lineman.
2- Minnesota Vikings: O-line: 11 D-line: 1 Linebackers: 10
The Vikings defensive line is by far away the best in the league. Not only do they have Jared Allen, widely considered the top DE in the game, they also have two more pro bowlers, tackles Pat and Kevin Williams. On the offensive side, Steve Hutchinson is aging, yet still one of the best in the buisness.
3- New Orleans Saints: O-Line: 1 D-Line: 8 Linebackers: 20
The Saints feature the number one offensive line in the game and a very strong defensive line. Just ask Brett Farve about that defensive pass rush. The linebacking core is weak, but still includes stud Jonathon Vilma, who will be relied on heavily.
4- Pittsburgh Steelers: O-line: 24 D-Line: 6 Linebackers:1
There linebackers are number one by a mile and their defensive line is very good. If they can get their offensive line into shape the Steelers could be a very good value pick this season as the general public underrates them due to the absence of Ben Roethelisberger.
5- Indianapolis Colts: 0-Line: 9 D-Line: 4 Linebackers: 24
If it weren't for the lack of depth at linebacker the Colts might be ranked a little higher than the Steelers. Their offensive line is solid, ranked 9th overall, and Peyton is so good at picking up blitzes he might as well count as a lineman himself. The defensive line has possibly the best pass rushing duo in the league with Da'White "Guy" Freeney and Robert Mathis holding down the end positions.
Other teams that fans are not high on, yet rank highly on this scale.:
Denver Broncos- Everyone assumes there will be a drop off with the loss of both Jay Cutler and Brandon Marshall. Additionally everyone is talking about Tim Tebow, somebody who is not going to see the field this year. What poeple should be talking about is Denver's linebacking core, which was 7th in the league last year and their pair of stud offensive tackles, led by Ryan Clady, the higest rated OT in Madden 11.
New York Giants- Experts seem to be low on the Giants heading into this season, but they still have the third best defensive line in football, and that was before they added JPP. (Jason Paul-Pierre) Their offensive line continues to be one of the best in football, ranking 8th last year. If they can get anything out of their Linebacking core, which was 30th in the league last year, they could return to eltite status and be a good value bet over the course of the season.
*Notice the Jets are not to be found in the top five, or even the top ten.
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